Simulated results over one, three and five years to August 2026, against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The limitations of a simulated record are set out at the bottom of this page in plain terms rather than in a footnote.
| Over the period | GC8 | S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | +1067.3% | +78.0% | +108.6% |
| Annualized return | 63.6% | 12.2% | 15.9% |
| Round trips | 24,401 | — | — |
| Round trips closed in profit | 56.1% | — | — |
| Calmar ratio | 2.81 | — | — |
Simulated growth of $1,000,000, net of estimated transaction and short borrow costs. A log scale is shown by default so the benchmark lines stay readable alongside the strategy; switch to linear to see the difference at full scale.
Shown net of estimated transaction costs and short borrow costs. 2021 covers October 11 onward; 2026 is year-to-date through October 9.
| Year | GC8 | S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (part) | +50.2% | +9.3% | +11.0% |
| 2022 | +90.0% | −19.9% | −33.7% |
| 2023 | +7.8% | +24.8% | +54.8% |
| 2024 | +13.5% | +24.0% | +27.0% |
| 2025 | +44.7% | +16.6% | +20.4% |
| 2026 (YTD) | +131.2% | +13.3% | +21.9% |
The strategy trailed the S&P 500 in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Those years are here for the same reason 2022 is: a record that only shows the good years is not a record.
Every trading day this month from the paper-traded account — live signals and live market prices, simulated capital — against the S&P 500. Through the close on October 21.
| Day | Fund | S&P 500 | Fund, compoundedFund MTD | S&P 500, compoundedS&P MTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | +0.72% | +0.18% | +0.72% | +0.18% |
| Oct 2 | +0.15% | +0.74% | +0.87% | +0.92% |
| Oct 5 | +0.47% | +0.67% | +1.34% | +1.60% |
| Oct 6 | +0.53% | +0.55% | +1.88% | +2.16% |
| Oct 7 | +0.08% | −0.24% | +1.96% | +1.91% |
| Oct 8 | +1.29% | −0.42% | +3.27% | +1.48% |
| Oct 9 | +0.60% | +0.60% | +3.89% | +2.09% |
| Oct 12 | +0.47% | −0.06% | +4.39% | +2.03% |
| Oct 13 | −0.36% | −0.01% | +4.01% | +2.02% |
| Oct 14 | +0.12% | −1.08% | +4.14% | +0.91% |
| Oct 15 | +3.44% | +0.28% | +7.72% | +1.20% |
| Oct 16 | −5.33% | −1.11% | +1.98% | +0.08% |
| Oct 19 | +2.32% | +0.42% | +4.34% | +0.50% |
| Oct 20 | +0.25% | +0.34% | +4.60% | +0.84% |
| Oct 21 | +0.87% | +0.53% | +5.51% | +1.37% |
| Sum of daily returns | +5.62% | +1.39% | ||
| Month to date, compounded | +5.51% | +1.37% |
Daily change in the paper-traded account’s value at each close; the S&P 500 is shown as SPY’s daily close. Paper-traded results use simulated capital, no client money was managed, and the figures are unaudited.
These results are simulated. They are produced by running the strategy's rules over historical market data. They are not a live trading record, and no client capital has been managed to them.
The universe carries survivorship bias. It is drawn from companies listed today, so firms that were delisted or acquired during the period are absent. This flatters the result to a degree we have not precisely quantified.
Costs are estimated, not observed. Transaction costs and short borrow costs are modeled from reasonable assumptions. Real execution differs — orders that the simulation fills at the intended price will sometimes not fill at all.
Capacity is untested at scale. The figures assume positions can be entered and exited at the sizes modeled. Larger allocations would face constraints this simulation does not impose.
We would rather state all of this on the page than have a prospective investor find it themselves. The full methodology discussion is available on request.
Simulated or hypothetical performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and may have been prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently sharp differences between simulated results and the actual results subsequently achieved. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.